Outlook

We publish the risk state: accumulation, distribution, or cash-heavy — and the live tape target.

Bitcoin $76,787 (−5.1% on the week, −38.4% from its high). Ether $2,252 (−4.2% on the week, −52.2% from its high). The two moved together. The market is in an early bull, 30 months after the last Bitcoin halving. Price is above its longer-term trend, −39.1% from the all-time high. A 75/25 Bitcoin/Ether hold still has to sit through winters of that size. Most allocators do not and cannot stomach the volatility. They inevitably end up selling the winter, miss the opportunity to average down, and end up paying for confirmation after the Wyckoff Spring.

We own the asset class through accumulation, step back to cash through distribution, and decline the full buy-and-hold drawdown.

The live ticket today has a recommended exposure of 54% Bitcoin, 26% Ether, 20% USDT. Bitcoin is the core. Ether has its own book, capped at 32% of NAV, so a Bitcoin-led tape does not blindly drag Ether to the same weight. USDT is the floor — enough to add when a print hits, enough that a clip does not wait on a redeem. Fear & Greed sits at 26. Extreme fear walks a new add faster. Greed slows a new add. Overlay freezes new risk on invalidation / disorderly / no-longs.

Last add in BTC was 98 days ago (27 Jul 2026). Last add in ETH was 103 days ago (22 Jul 2026). No change this week.

What to expect from here is boring on purpose. If the tape stays mid-cycle, the sleeve stands. If a deep-value window opens, we add on closed prints. If a distribution window opens, we trim toward the floor. Overlay freezes new risk when the tape is disorderly. That is the mandate: time in the market and timing the market. Harvest the summer. Cut the winter. Still own the asset class.